What is roof propensity scoring?
Propensity scoring predicts which homes will need a roof next — from imagery-read condition plus 50+ owner signals. The definition, the inputs, the use.
Every marketing dollar in roofing is a bet on one question: will this home buy a roof soon? Propensity scoring is the discipline of answering it with evidence — a per-address prediction built from the roof's actual condition and the owner's actual capacity.
The short answer: Roof propensity scoring is a predictive model that estimates, per address, how likely a home is to need and purchase roof work soon. It combines verified roof condition — read from EagleView aerial imagery at 1-inch-per-pixel resolution — with 50+ homeowner signals like income, home value and spending indicators. Reworked.ai's implementation, the Betty Score, ranks 112M+ US roofs so contractors market to the likeliest homes first.
- 112M+ — US roofs carrying a propensity score
- 50+ — owner signals feeding the model
- 1-inch — per-pixel imagery resolution behind the condition read
- $1.79 — per scored, owner-matched opportunity
The two halves of the score
- Roof condition — computer vision reads EagleView aircraft-mounted imagery for wear patterns, streaking, missing shingles, ponding and age indicators. This is the need half: does the evidence say this roof is failing?
- Owner fit — 50+ demographic and financial signals — income levels, home values, spending patterns — estimate whether the owner can and will fund the work. This is the means half.
- The score — both halves combined into one rankable number per address. High score = need and means overlap; that overlap is where jobs come from.
Why ranking beats filtering
A filter says yes/no; a score says who's first. Given 4,000 qualifying homes in your zips and budget for 1,200 mailers, the propensity ranking decides which 1,200 doors get the spend — and that prioritization, more than any creative decision, sets your response rate. It's the same logic insurers and lenders apply to risk, pointed at demand instead.
From score to signed job
- Rank — every address in your territory scored and sorted; Reworked.ai brands this the Betty Score.
- Pull — the top of the list becomes your campaign at $1.79 per AI-Qualified Opportunity.
- Reach — Direct Mail Sequences and Home Ads land on those exact households; response runs 3–5% because the list did the qualifying.
- Refresh — roofs age and owners change; scores update so the ranking stays current.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Betty Score?
Reworked.ai's branded roof propensity score — the per-address ranking produced by combining imagery-read roof condition with 50+ homeowner signals across 112M+ US roofs. Contractors see it on every opportunity record and use it to order their outreach.
How is propensity scoring different from buying a lead list?
A lead list is people who acted — form-fills resold at $150–700 to multiple contractors. A propensity score is evidence about the home itself, computed before anyone acts, and sold once at $1.79. One is harvested intent; the other is predicted demand.
How accurate is roof propensity scoring?
No prediction is a guarantee, but the proof is in campaign math: mail on high-scored addresses runs 3–5% response versus under 0.5% for blanket lists — the score concentrating real demand is what makes that gap.
Can propensity scoring work for storm damage too?
Yes — after a serious hail event, the same condition-plus-owner logic ranks affected addresses by claim potential, using roof age and pre-storm condition. That's how Storm Opportunities order the knock list as fast as 90 minutes after impact.
Keep reading
- AI-Qualified Opportunity — The definition, unpacked
- Retail Opportunities — AI-scored homes at $1.79 each
- Roofing Intent Data — What it is, costs, the earlier signal
- Aerial Imagery for Roofers — From measurement to demand engine
Stop chasing the 1%. Start owning the 99%. Find real roofs in your market today — $1.79 each, no contract, no subscription, powered by EagleView aerial imagery. See scored homes in my zips